Manchester City are still hot favourites with the bookies to win the league this year, despite Liverpool boasting a 100% record in the opening month of the Premier League, and having a two-point cushion over Man City during the September international break.
And so, without further ado, here are five reasons why the bookmakers are right, and the order of the top-two will be unchanged from last season.
1. City the Better Team in Head-to-Heads
They say you are only as good as your last game, but in the saga of ‘City v Liverpool’, teams are only as good as their last head-to-head meeting. Undeniably, there were very few moments where Liverpool showed signs of mortality in 2018/19, but their two matches against Manchester City were among them. Much has been made of Liverpool’s non-goal while level at the Etihad Stadium encounter in January, but 11 millimetres is still enough of a difference to rule out a goal.
Liverpool had their moments in that pivotal New Year meeting, but City were deserved winners. In any case, the signs of City’s psychological superiority were far more in evidence during the first meeting, as the sides drew 0-0 at Anfield in October 2018. Liverpool were far from their incisive best and allowed City to control large swathes of the game, and so good was the patient, possession-based gameplan from City, that the Reds grew increasingly frustrated – and thus grew increasingly impotent.
They were also reliant on the more experienced players in red, with James Milner pulling the strings in a midfield battle that was slipping away. However, he would end up being subbed off, entirely changing the complexion of the game, and illustrating the importance of squad depth.
2. Transfer Window Still a Priority for Reds
While Liverpool’s aforementioned desire to attack has done them proud, it has occasionally backfired or (in the most recent case) boiled over into a minor episode of unrest. Still topical for many fans with a great interest in the title race, SadioMané’s Turf Moor outburst – after what he perceived to be an untimely substitution – could yet have an impact on Liverpool’s title challenge.
Mané’s actions were extremely unbefitting of a forward reflecting on a good performance and an imminent 3-0 win. While that outburst is likely a mere fit of passion, there is no smoke without fire, and if Mané does secretly desire a move away from Anfield, then Liverpool will be forced to act immediately in the January transfer window.
Even if Mané does not leave, and Liverpool go into the new decade still top, Jürgen Klopp would still be well-advised to delve into the transfer market with greater gusto than before. Outright strikers are one potential issue, even with Mo Salah playing through the middle more often. While DivockOrigi is a good deputy for Roberto Firmino, and a man clearly capable of being a disruptive impact sub, Liverpool’s options are limited in the event of an injury crisis.
Naturally, playing Mané upfront is an alternative, but Klopp needs differential options as to how he fields the versatile Senegal international to get the most out of him. Indeed, people have already seen how he reacts when things do not fall in his favour, and Klopp still has much to ponder despite Liverpool’s healthy lead.
Backup wingbacks may also be needed, as there is no guarantee that Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold will remain injury-free. For all his versatility, wide ‘evergreen’ man, James Milner cannot cover the same ground that those two dynamos can, and Joe Gomez still engenders mixed opinions at right-back.
3. November to be Liverpool’s Real Test
Up until now, Liverpool’s fixtures have been relatively easy, but their title credentials will be put to a much more significant test from late September onwards.
Any repeat of the results from last season’s corresponding fixtures will surely hand the advantage to City and see them back up Marathonbet’s Premier League Predictions for 2019/20. After what should be a routine home win over Newcastle, Liverpool face two consecutive away matches – at Chelsea and Sheffield United.
While Chelsea have been far from at their best under Frank Lampard, Stamford Bridge has not been one of Liverpool’s stronger venues in recent years, and the Reds were lucky to poach a point in their last league visit. Sheffield United are also high on confidence, having recently denied Chelsea themselves two points after going 2-0 down.
A home match with Leicester and a trip to Old Trafford is no guarantee of success for Liverpool, with the Reds drawing both fixtures last season after under-par performances. Beyond that, Liverpool’s next two home games are against Tottenham and Man City. While Liverpool beat Tottenham back in April last season, there was an element of fortune about the winning goal, with the Londoners having by far the better of the second half at Anfield.
4. City Can Capitalise on Liverpool’s Daunting Run
By contrast, a majority of City’s league fixtures after the September international break will be played at the Etihad Stadium, and while their November visit to Anfield will be the toughest test yet, the time is surely ripe for City to end a sixteen-year wait for a victory on the red side of Stanley Park. They came within a penalty kick of doing that last year, and know that victory will all but make them dead-certs for the title, depending on the points gulf an Anfield win could create.
Even if the Anfield trip does not go to plan, Manchester City (unlike Liverpool) have the luxury of home advantage in their winter fixtures against Manchester United and Chelsea. There is no guarantee that both of the clubs’ respective managers will still be in a job by the time of that visit, and if either club is under caretaker control for a visit to the Etihad, some more resounding scorelines could be forthcoming.
A visit to Arsenal on 14 December has the potential to test nerves, but City were consummate winners at the Emirates Stadium last season, and Arsenal are still not at their best, even with the expensive Nicolas Pépé now amongst the ranks.
5. Resources and Winning Nous an Advantage
People forget all too quickly how much of 2018/19 was missed by Sergio Agüero and Kevin De Bruyne combined. Yet, despite the absence of such players in key matches, City always remained within touching distance of Liverpool. Gabriel Jesus was an able deputy for Agüero around early December, while İlkay Gündoğan and Bernardo Silva were often able to make up the attacking shortfall left by De Bruyne’s absence, in addition to fulfilling their own duties in defence and distribution.
Additionally, knowledge is also a part of being resourceful – specifically, the knowledge of how to negotiate a title race. Some of the City squad have been in-situ for all four of the club’s previous Premier League title wins, and with three of those not settled until full-time on the final weekend of the season, their tenacity and staying power is second-to-none.
Ultimately, despite trailing Liverpool in the standings, the title is still very much City’s to lose.
